tower

And that’s a good thing, because their SEC filings show that demand is down from 2007-2007, as it is everywhere.  It’s looking like utilities are unable to sustain their drive for long distance market dispatch, and if this trend is the reality, and their stock continues to be in the toilet, they can’t build their transmission dream — this is good news!  Chalk up one for the economic depression!

All of us participating in the Delmarva Power IRP have to make sure the PSC knows about the tanked market, after all, they’re addressing how Delmarva Power will fulfill its demand, and for sure we don’t need new generation (need different generation, to be sure) or any transmission.  As to needing different generation, it’s particularly important at this time to attach a requirement to SHUT DOWN FOSSIL FUEL to any RES.  Without that, they’ll just sell it elsewhere, and we won’t gain anything.

Here’s one example of how the economy can have an impact on electric infrastructure and market. Hot off the press — PEPCO may not be selling stock to finance projects, and the biggest project they’re looking at is the much-detested Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway, electric transmission known as the MAPP line.

mapptransmissionoverview

And remember, not that long ago, PJM cancelled the part from Indian River to Salem, NJ, at the Salem & Hope Creek nuclear plants.  Here’s what it looks like now, supposedly:

HA!  THEIR MAPS DON’T EVEN REFLECT THAT CHANGE!!

MAPP - PEPCO-PJM Press Release May 19, 2009

The Press Release says:

According to Gausman, PJM has also reviewed the need for the section of the line that would run from Delmarva Power’s Indian River substation near Millsboro, Del., to Salem, N.J., and has decided to move this portion of the line into its “continuing study” category. This means that the reconfigured MAPP line will now extend approximately 150 miles from northern Virginia, across southern Maryland and the Chesapeake Bay, and terminate at Indian River. The change would likely reduce the total project cost from $1.4 billion to $1.2 billion.

(Emphasis added).  Hee hee hee hee hee — “… terminate at Indian River.”  No Indian River to Salem, NJ section.  Cutting a section out is just one more step to tanking the project.  What’s the point of a radial line to Indian River?  Some would say that “hey, there’s transmission there, it’s not a radial line,” but there’s NOT transmission there to facilitate the bulk power transfers coming in on a 500kV line.  The system there is comparatively VERY low voltage.  Others would note that the Indian River plant has two units shutting down, but folks, they’re the smallest units, totalling about 150MW or so, that will not make a big electrical difference, though it has a significant impact on our ability to breathe the air in southern Delaware!  Taking the small Indian River units most probably means that Bluewater Wind should have no problem interconnecting — lets see the interconnection studies with Indian River units off line!

Anyway, here’s the poop — and look at the PEPCO price: $13.39, about half of what it was a year ago ($26.25) (for month, YTD, year and 5 year, go HERE) If you look at the 5 year trend, it’s the same reflected in Xcel’s demand — everything goes south in 2007.  THIS IS NOT A “BLIP” FROM LAST FALL’S CRASH, this is a 2 year, nearly 3 year trend. (For Xcel month, YTD, year and 5 year, go HERE).

From PEPCO’s 2008 SEC 10-K, here’s their 2007-2008 energy delivery numbers (DOWN), regulated and default:

Regulated T&D Electric Sales (Gigawatt hours (GWh))
2008
2007
Change
Residential
17,186
17,946
(760)
Commercial
28,739
29,137
(398)
Industrial
3,781
3,974
(193)
Other
261
261
-
Total Regulated T&D Electric Sales
49,967
51,318
(1,351)
Default Electricity Supply Sales (GWh)
2008
2007
Change
Residential
16,621
17,469
(848)
Commercial
9,564
9,910
(346)
Industrial
640
914
(274)
Other
101
131
(30)
Total Default Electricity Supply Sales
26,926
28,424
(1,498)

Here’s PEPCO 2007-7008 SEC 10-K info, 2006-6007, regulated and default - these numbers should be the same for the same years, and they’re not, what does that mean:

Regulated T&D Electric Sales (GWh)
2007
2006
Change
Residential
17,946
17,139
807
Commercial
29,398
28,638
760
Industrial
3,974
4,119
(145)
Total Regulated T&D Electric Sales
51,318
49,896
1,422
Default Electricity Supply Sales (GWh)
2007
2006
Change
Residential
17,469
16,698
771
Commercial
9,910
14,799
(4,889)
Industrial
914
1,379
(465)
Other
131
129
2
Total Default Electricity Supply Sales
28,424
33,005
(4,581)

Here’s the PEPCO 2006 SEC 10-K info, their 2005-2006 energy delivery numbers (DOWN), first regulated sales:

Regulated T&D Electric Sales (gigawatt hours (Gwh))

2006

2005

Change

Residential

17,139

18,045

(906)

Commercial

28,638

29,441

(803)

Industrial

4,119

4,288

(169)

Total Regulated T&D Electric Sales

49,896

51,774

(1,878)

Default Electricity Supply Sales (Gwh)

2006

2005

Change

Residential

16,698

17,490

(792)

Commercial

14,799

15,020

(221)

Industrial

1,379

2,058

(679)

Other

129

157

(28)

Total Default Electricity Supply Sales

33,005

34,725

(1,720)

CLICK HERE - PEPCO’s SEC 10-K filings for lots of years to do your own looking!

From Bloomberg:

Pepco CFO May Postpone Investment to Avoid Share Sale


By Katarzyna Klimasinska

June 26 (Bloomberg) — Pepco Holdings Inc.’s new chief financial officer, Anthony Kamerick, is considering postponing some investments beyond 2010 to prevent selling shares below book value.

Pepco, the owner of Washington’s electric utility, currently plans about $1 billion in total capital projects for 2010, mainly on the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway transmission line and smart grid, Kamerick said. The completion of the transmission line, also known as MAPP, has already been delayed by a year.

“We have to balance, obviously, the need to make sure our system is safe and reliable for the customers,” Kamerick said in a telephone interview yesterday from Washington, where the company is based. “It’s a delicate balance.”

MAPP is scheduled to start service in June 2014 and will run from northern Virginia, across southern Maryland and Chesapeake Bay, to Indian River, Delaware.

Smart grids will be able to detect power failures and automatically isolate them, increasing the reliability of the power system, according to Pepco.

Pepco sold shares at $16.50 each in November and has had a 25 percent decline so far this year. The current price represents 72 percent of book value, or assets minus liabilities, per share, according to a Bloomberg calculation from company data.

Pepco fell 3 cents to $13.39 in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Kamerick replaced Paul Barry, who resigned, on June 12. He has worked for Pepco and its predecessor, Potomac Electric Power Co., since 1970, most recently as chief regulatory officer.

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